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All Things RE - Stop Trying to Time the Market
Dated: April 23 2026
Views: 365
Stop Trying to Time the Market
That’s Not How Real Estate Works
Every year, one of the most searched real estate questions is:
“Is now a good time to buy?”
It sounds responsible.
It feels like the right move.
But it leads people in the wrong direction.
Real estate is not something you time.
It is something you hold.
Values move over time. Some years are stronger than others. That’s expected. What makes real estate different is the lack of daily volatility. That stability is what allows homeowners to stay the course and actually benefit from appreciation.
Let’s bring this closer to home.
In Johnson County, Kansas, a home purchased in 2021 would have experienced roughly:
- 11% in 2022*
- 7% in 2023
- 3% in 2024
- 4% in 2025
2022 was an outlier year following COVID and not representative of a typical year.
Let’s say someone purchased a home for $525,000 in 2021.
That home would be worth right around $668,000 today.
That’s about $143,000 in appreciation over four years.
No special timing.
Just ownership.
Now look at what that means from an investment standpoint.
With a 10% down payment, that buyer would have invested $52,500.
That $52,500 controlled a $525,000 asset.
A $143,000 gain on that investment is roughly a 270% return.
That’s leverage doing what it’s supposed to do.
Let’s strip out the strong years and look at something more typical.
Historically, appreciation lands around 3% to 5% annually.
At a steady 4%:
- That $525,000 home becomes about $614,000 after four years
- That’s a gain of roughly $89,000
On a $52,500 investment, that’s still about a 170% return
No spike.
No hype.
Just time doing its job.
Real estate isn’t built for short-term wins.
Trying to jump in and out usually works against you. The advantage comes from:
- Staying in the market
- Letting appreciation build
- Using leverage correctly
- Owning something stable
When people ask if now is a good time to buy, they’re really asking if they can predict what happens next.
That’s not a strategy.
A better question is:
Does buying make sense for your situation, and can you stay long enough to let it work?
Because the people who win in real estate aren’t the ones who time it perfectly.
They’re the ones who get in…
…and stay in.
If buying has been on your mind, the conversation shouldn’t be about timing the market. It should be about putting together a plan that fits your situation and your long-term goals.
If you want to walk through that, I’m always available.
Shawn Lewis
Johnson County Real Estate Consultant (Est. 2001)
Shawn Lewis
With more than twenty years in real estate, Shawn brings experience, perspective, and steady leadership to every transaction. He is known for his sound judgment, clear communication, and disciplined a....
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